COVID-19 Model Based on Conformable Fractional Derivativeand Its Numerical Solution
WANG Yu1,2, FENG Yuqiang1
1. School of Science, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430081, China; 2. School of Science, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
Abstract：After the outbreak of COVID-19, it is of great significance to find an appropriate dynamic model of COVID-19 epidemic in order to master its transmission law, predict its development trend, and provide corresponding prevention and control basis. In this paper, the SEIRV chamber model is adopted, and the dynamics model of infectious disease is established by combining the fractional derivative of Conformable. The fractional derivative differential equation of Conformable is discretized by numerical method and its numerical solution is obtained. In addition, numerical simulation was carried out on the confirmed data of Wuhan city from January 23, 2020 to February 11, 2020. At the same time, consider that the Wuhan municipal government revised the epidemic data on February 12, 2020, adding nearly 14,000 people. The order α value of SEIRV model is modified, and then the revised data is simulated. The simulation results are in good agreement with the published data. The results show that compared with the traditional integer order model, the fractional order model can simulate the modified data. This reflects the advantages of fractional infectious disease dynamics model, and can provide certain reference value for the prediction of COVID-19 model.
王宇, 冯育强. 基于Conformable分数阶导数的COVID-19模型及其数值解[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2022, 19(3): 27-32.
WANG Yu, FENG Yuqiang. COVID-19 Model Based on Conformable Fractional Derivativeand Its Numerical Solution. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2022, 19(3): 27-32.
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